Themes in this post: Dramatic growth of solar power in India | Ground mounted solar – the hero | Regional contribution | Solar vs other renewable sources | Solar in 2030

Most of us are euphoric about the short term success of some of the flash-in-the-pan phenomena (only to get disappointed or worse) and almost always underestimate the potential of things that are placid today but has the potential to grow massively in the medium and long term.

India’s solar power growth is a shining example of this, to employ a pun.

In 2024, I was at an energy conference in Delhi in which a retired bureaucrat was giving a speech. During his time as a bureaucrat, he had been associated with some of the earliest solar power installations in North India. During his speech about the current solar installed capacities in the country and states, he continued saying MW when he should have said GW, and had to correct himself at a rather high frequency. Towards the end of his speech, he humbly – and with a nice touch of humour – apologised for this, as follows: “You should excuse this old man for saying MW instead of GW so many times. You see, when I was overseeing solar power installations, the highest capacity we did was 5 MW. We had not used the term GW even once”.

Fair enough. The country was talking in kilowatts (written as KW) until about 2010, and in megawatts (MW) starting 2010 and until about 2020. Now the talk has shifted to Gigawatts (GW), the country having just achieved 100 GW.

As you might have figured, a MW equals 1000 KW, and a GW equals 1000 MW. Do your simple math, and you realize that today, we are talking about capacities that are a few orders of magnitude of what they were some 20 years back!

From 0 to 100

India’s solar power journey since 2010 has been defined by fairly ambitious policies.

When the UPA government set the target as 20 GW by 2020, that looked fairly ambitious. Looking back, it is easy to think that they could have aimed higher but we should realise that in 2010, the total global solar power installations was only 40 GW. No one could have imagined that in just 10 years it would multiply almost 20 fold to reach 710 GW by 2020.

By the time the NDA government came to power in 2014, there were enough signs that the solar power sector had much higher potential for growth. Add to this the inherent industry and business orientation of the NDA government, and one could well imagine that they would increase the targets. They did, but much higher than what one would have thought – to #H100 GW by 2022#H. Well, right then, it did look like wishful thinking. But we are all seeing reality – the target has been achieved only two years later – a rather acceptable delay, in my opinion, given the uncertainties associated with this sector.

From #Hpractically nothing to 100 GW in about 15 years#H definitely implies that quite a few things went right.

Interestingly, the most important thing that went right may have nothing to do with our country’s efforts. It has more to do with what happened in another country – China.

Because the most important driver for solar power growth has been the dramatic price drop of solar panels and hence the price of solar power. And China has been almost solely responsible for the dramatic reduction in solar panel prices. 

From a high of about Rs 18/unit when the government launched its first power purchase scheme in 2010, the price of solar power has plunged more than 80% – to about Rs 2.5 per unit – by 2024. 

The other significant driver has been the success of the Indian ground mounted solar power plants sector. #HOver 80% of India’s total installed capacity#H for solar power has been from ground-mounted utility scale power plants.

Government policies and incentives mattered too. In addition to the central government’s efforts, many states with significant potential for large scale solar power plant installations are contributing to this impressive growth. This  powerful combination of central and state government efforts could well catapult India’s solar power sector into its next orbit fairly quickly.

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Figure: Solar Power Installed Capacity

Let’s look at the 2010-2015 period. India began its journey with only about 100 MW of installed capacity at the start of 2010 when the Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM) was launched. This initial phase saw cumulative growth to 5 GW by 2015. During this period, policies such as subsidies and tax incentives fueled investments, marking the beginning of India’s solar revolution. So: #H0.1 GW -> 5 GW in the 2010-15 period#H.

The 2016-2020 period was quite a different one. From 2016, solar installations surged, reaching approximately 35 GW by the end of 2020, a seven-fold growth. This acceleration was facilitated by implementation of GW scale solar parks, such as the Bhadla Solar Park in Rajasthan and Pavagada Solar Park in Karnataka. Key to such implementations were competitive tariff reductions, which made solar power more affordable and attracted investments in utility-scale solar projects. So: #H5 GW -> 35 GW in the 2016-20 period#H.

The 2021-2024 period saw even more acceleration. By early 2024, India’s cumulative solar capacity had gone beyond 70 GW, with a record installation of 18 GW in 2023 alone. 2024 saw additions of close to 25 GW, getting the industry to touch 100 GW at the end of January 2025. During this phase, rooftop and distributed solar also contributed significantly, in addition to the large contributions from GW scale solar power plant implementations. So: #H35 GW -> 100 GW in the 2016-24 period#H.

Massive contribution from ground-mounted solar

India has seen significant success in ground-mounted solar power plant installations, with cumulative installations touching 80 GW by early 2025.

India has made substantial progress in ground-mounted solar power since 2010, with a focus on increasing capacity through supportive government policies, private sector involvement, and favorable market conditions. The journey began with a few small plants (about 1 MW) in 2010; from this modest start, the capacity of ground mounted solar power plants has reached close to 80 GW (80000 MW) by early 2025, of the total of 100 GW. 

That is, of the 100 GW cumulative achieved by the solar power sector, over 80% was contributed by the ground-mounted sector.

The growth of ground mounted solar power plants happened in phases.

Phase 1 – Until 2015: Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM), launched in 2010, marked India’s serious commitment to renewable energy, initially targeting 20 GW of solar power by 2022. This period focused on creating policy frameworks, offering subsidies, and attracting investments, leading to about 5 GW of capacity by 2015.

The period 2016-2020 was the timeline when India saw rapid growth in large-scale solar installations during this period, significantly boosted by utility-scale solar parks. Projects like Bhadla Solar Park in Rajasthan, with a capacity of 2,245 MW, became a cornerstone of India’s renewable energy landscape. By end of 2020, cumulative ground mounted solar power capacity had had grown to around 35 GW.

The years post-2020 were marked by even larger annual installations, aiming for ambitious targets set by the government. This phase saw significant participation from private sector giants like Adani Green Energy and Tata Power Solar, powering the total ground mounted solar power capacity to 80 GW by 2025.

Regional contribution

Certain states stand out as leaders in solar power, driving significant advancements and setting benchmarks for the entire country. These states leverage their unique advantages—be they high solar insolation, robust infrastructure, or supportive policies—to propel India’s solar capacity to impressive heights.

#HRajasthan leads the charge#H with an installed capacity of approximately 23 GW, with abundant sunlight and the world-renowned Bhadla Solar Park, at 2,245 MW. Gujarat follows with around 11 GW, driven by large-scale projects like the Charanka Solar Park and ambitious plans to reach 100 GW by 2030. Karnataka and Tamil Nadu also make significant contributions, each boasting over 8 GW of installed capacity.

Star States v/s The Rest

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Figure: Star states solar installed capacity (2024)

Figure: Non-star states solar installed capacity (2024)

It should be no surprise that a state such as Rajasthan has high potential. States such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu should not be surprises either. But Gujarat being the second most should surprise as that is a much smaller state than many others below it in the list, and UP not being in the top 3 should be a surprise as well.

Regional leaders in large scale solar farms

The leader should once again not be a surprise – Rajasthan.

The second – surprise – is Gujarat. I say it is a surprise because Gujarat is a highly industrialized state with much less unutilized land available compared to Rajasthan. But thanks to some proactive thinking and enterprise, and to some extent aided by the fact that the prime minister is from that state, the state has put up some large solar farms.

Karnataka comes in the third position, with a good portion of its ground-mounted solar growth having been fuelled by the large Pavagada solar park (2 GW) 

Regional leaders in rooftop solar

While one could have perhaps quite easily guessed the leaders in large, ground-mounted solar farms, the leaderboard for rooftop solar is far more tricky to figure out as we are no longer talking about barren lands but enough rooftops and enough interest from the industrial and residential sectors to have solar power plants on these.

What’s the pecking order for India in rooftop solar? The top 5 are occupied by:

• Maharashtra
• Karnataka
• Gujarat
• Delhi
• Telangana

Maharashtra has over 2.5 GW of rooftop solar installed, making it the numero uno. The state being highly industrialized and generous policy support from the government, and proactive industry and businesses in Mumbai and Pune all combined together to make this leadership happen.

Karnataka’s rooftop solar growth (2 GW) has been driven largely by high adoption in Bengaluru especially by the IT sector, aided by excellent response from the commercial sector such as the educational institutes. Generous state government policies once again played a major role in rooftop adoption in this state.

Gujarat continues to impress here too, with a strong 2 GW rooftop solar installation. In addition to the well-known enterprise and business acumen of the state’s population, attractive subsidies and other positive state policies helped many industrial, commercial and residential units go for rooftop solar.

Delhi (1.5 GW), driven by significant adoption in government buildings and Telangana (1.3 GW) round off the last two in the rooftop solar pecking order in India.

Solar vs rest of RE sources

You might be mighty surprised to know that #HIndia’s first unit of electricity#H was generated not from a coal power plant, but from a hydroelectric power plant.

The first hydroelectric power plant in India was installed in Darjeeling, West Bengal in 1897, with a capacity of 130 kW. That makes hydro power in India almost 130 years old.

The #Hfirst wind farm in India#H was set up in Mullakkadu, Tamil Nadu in 1986. The farm had 10 turbines, each with a capacity of 55 kW. That makes the wind power almost 40 years old.

India has been running #Hbiomass power for over 25 years#H, starting mid 1990s.

So how are the rest of the renewable energy sources growing compared to solar?

While India has had small solar panels installed way back in the 1980s, the first MW-scale ground mounted solar power plant was first installed only in 2010. You could say that solar power is perhaps the youngest of all the renewable power sources in India..

The youngest appears to be running the fastest. In the last 15 years as of 2025, solar power has raced ahead of all other renewable power sources in India, and out of India’s 215 GW of renewable power capacity in Jan 2025, #Hsolar contributes to almost half!#H

How well have other renewable energy sources grown in the last fifteen years, since 2010?

Between 2010 and 2025, wind power installations grew from 13 GW to just under 50 GW. Bio-energy saw very modest growth to about 11 GW from 2.7 GW in 2010, and so did hydro power, which stood at about 50 GW in Jan 2025, rising from 40 GW in 2010.

A comparison between the growth of solar power and those of other renewable power sources show the dramatic momentum solar has had in comparison with the rest.

Solar in 2030

In 2030, solar could constitute about 60% of all renewable power capacity and about 35% of overall electricity installed capacity.

As of early 2025, solar power had a total share of about #H47% of the total renewable#H power installed capacity in India (100 GW of 215 GW), which in itself is impressive. By 2030, this share will be close to #H60% (300 GW of 500 GW)#H.

In January 2025, solar power’s capacity (100 GW) was about 21% of total electricity installed capacity in India (about 470 GW). This would have gone up to about 35% by end of 2030 (300 GW out of an expected of about 850-900 GW total electricity installed capacity).

Will solar reach 300 GW by 2030? That would need a trebling of our current installed capacity? Well, looking at the current rates of solar capacity addition, this is not impossible. A different perspective to answer this question is: Accelerating solar power capacity close to 300 GW is that the only way India can reach 500 GW by 2030. Unless the solar power sector grows at a pace that adds 200 GW in the next six years, India cannot reach 500 GW as no other renewable power source can add so much capacity in such a short time.

Remember, it took the country’s solar power sector 10 years to go from nothing to about 35 GW, and about 4 years to go from 35 GW to 100 GW – a tripling in just 4 years. So why not 300 GW by 2030? I say, why not indeed!

While solar charts its course, by 2030, the rest of renewables would have grown from about 120 GW in 2025 to 200 GW, a 67% growth – commendable in itself, but looks low only if you compare it with the 200% growth for solar!