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Themes in this post: New tech | New business models | Solar + storage | Solar & EV | Solar & green hydrogen | Solar future 

About a year back, I remember one of my business friends, far removed from the world of energy (he deals in chocolates and cookies, lucky fellow), asking me, “Tell me Narsi. Why this sudden hype about hydrogen? I thought hydrogen has been used in making fertilizers for many decades.”

He was quite right. The world has been using hydrogen to make ammonia – and then on, fertilizers from ammonia – for over a hundred years. Not just for making ammonia, but also in the refining of crude oil at refineries.

So why this sudden amped up news on hydrogen? Well, because we are not talking about just hydrogen, but green hydrogen. The current dominant method to produce hydrogen, called steam methane reforming, makes hydrogen from methane, in the process releasing large amounts of CO2. Hydrogen that prevents such CO2 emissions needs to be produced in a different way.

This is where electrolysis of water comes in handy as you get hydrogen on one side and just oxygen on the other – no CO2. But in order for the entire production lifecycle to be avoid CO2 emissions, the electricity that is used for electrolysis also needs to be low carbon. 

This is where solar power makes an entry. Since 2020, when the green hydrogen sector started growing worldwide, the industry has found solar power to be highly valuable as the power source for green hydrogen production.  

Green hydrogen is only one of the emerging domains where solar power is trying to add value.

Besides its use in emerging domains such as green hydrogen and the innovations that could drive this combination of solar and green hydrogen, there are other aspects of solar power that could also see significant innovations.

Silicon-based cells and panels have dominated solar power generation equipment for almost ever. Is it possible that silicon-based solar panels could be dethroned? Is it possible that the industry could use different types of cell and solar power plant architectures to extend efficiencies beyond the upper limit that conventional solar cells have?

While the solar power sector has been leveraging IT and digital technologies for over a decade, could the great disruptor, Artificial Intelligence, make digital solutions have a much larger role to play in the progress and impact of solar power worldwide?

What innovations could drive the intersection of solar and the fast growing domain of energy storage, especially batteries?

And how best will solar enable the true decarbonization of the transport sector – what innovations will drive the intersections of solar power & electric vehicles, whether they are powered by batteries or fuel cells?

No one knows for sure all the answers to these questions, but some trends are emerging. Let’s look at these.

New Tech

What are the future technologies in solar panels that will drive the solar sector in India?

There are some interesting developments happening in solar cells and panels.

#HPerovskite technology#H is emerging as a promising alternative to traditional silicon-based solar cells. This technology offers the potential to significantly lower production costs due to simpler manufacturing processes. It is capable of achieving higher efficiencies compared to conventional silicon cells and also reduces dependency on imported silicon cells, fostering local manufacturing and deployment.

#HTandem solar cells#H combine different photovoltaic materials to capture a wider spectrum of sunlight. By stacking materials like silicon and perovskites, tandem cells can surpass the efficiency limits of conventional solar cells.

#HHeterojunction Solar Cells (HJT) technology#H integrates crystalline silicon with amorphous silicon layers. Improves sunlight absorption and reduces energy loss. These are particularly effective in higher temperatures, making them suitable for India’s diverse climates. HJT cells enhance solar adoption across various regions by maintaining efficiency even in warmer conditions. Companies like Trina Solar are implementing HJT technology in their product lines, showcasing its effectiveness in real-world applications.

#HBifacial solar panels#H generate electricity from both the front and rear sides, capturing reflected sunlight from surfaces. These can enhance overall energy production by utilizing reflected light. As these are suitable for both utility-scale projects and rooftop installations where ground reflectivity can be maximized, large solar farms across the country are increasingly adopting bifacial technology to boost their energy output.

Besides cells and panels themselves, there have also been innovations to aid two special types of solar power plants: solar-wind hybrids and agrivoltaics.

#HFloating solar installations#H utilize water bodies for solar panel deployment. These mitigate land-use conflicts by using water surfaces, freeing up land for other purposes. They also reduce water evaporation from reservoirs, contributing to water conservation, thus combining  water conservation with clean energy generation, enhancing overall environmental sustainability. Telangana is implementing floating solar projects on large water bodies, contributing to the state’s renewable energy goals and showcasing the dual benefits of this technology.

There has also been a shift towards hybrid systems that integrate solar panels with agricultural activities, known as #Hagrivoltaics#H. This approach allows for the simultaneous use of land for both solar energy generation and farming, thereby reducing the negative impact on agricultural productivity and preserving local ecosystems.

Future tech in balance of systems

The balance of systems in solar power (components outside of the panels), is seeing relatively less innovations compared to those in the panels themselves, and one of the reasons could be that a good part of these belong to old industry sectors – mounting structures, electricals such as cables and junction boxes etc.

However, one balance of system components that continues to see significant innovations is the inverter – equipment that convert the DC power from the solar panels to AC.

Advanced solar inverters revolve around Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) that optimizes power output under varying sunlight conditions, and microinverters that allow individual panel optimization, improving overall system efficiency and safety etc.. Companies like Sungrow are supplying advanced inverter solutions to large solar projects across India, improving the efficiency and reliability of these installations.

As battery storage starts becoming more prominent in ground mounted solar power plants, once can expect innovations in battery systems, specifically Li-ion batteries to assist in the growth of this sector.

Digital solutions

It should hardly be a surprise that digital solutions are playing a big role in many components of the solar PV value chain. 

The leader, no surprises here, is Artificial Intelligence (AI). Utilized for predictive analytics in energy production and demand forecasting, AI systems analyze weather patterns, panel performance, and grid demands to optimize energy distribution. They identify maintenance needs in advance, reducing downtime and operational costs. AI solutions are also being used significantly in monitoring of large solar power plants through the use of image recognition for identifying faults in solar panels. AI solutions are also helping 

Blockchain is a close second. Blockchain facilitates peer-to-peer energy trading, enhancing transparency and enabling decentralized energy transactions. This ensures secure and transparent energy transactions between producers and consumers, and supports microgrid systems by allowing direct energy trading, reducing reliance on large utilities.

Another use of digital in the solar power sector could be in smart grids. Smart grids can manage distributed energy resources is essential for enhancing solar power’s role in the energy mix. Smart grids can dynamically balance supply and demand, improving grid reliability and creating a more resilient and flexible energy infrastructure capable of handling variable renewable energy sources. Tata Power is actively working on smart grids projects to enhance energy distribution and management, demonstrating the practical benefits of smart grid technologies in improving solar energy integration.

Innovations to get more from solar power plants

A 1 MW solar power plant in an area with good sunlight currently generates – on average –  about 1.5 million units of electricity a year.

Is it possible for the same plant to generate 2 million units – about 25% higher? This could, over a 25 year project lifetime, imply an additional ten million units.

An average Indian household consumes about 3500 units of electricity a year. This implies that such a yield increase from just a 1 MW solar power plant over its lifetime could provide electricity to 3,000 Indian homes for a year!

Let’s try to extrapolate this to pan-India. 100 GW of solar power generates about 150 billion kWh –  about 10% of India’s total electricity consumption. If yields from the existing solar power plants are increased by just 10%, that alone would mean an additional 15 billion kWh, which is about 50% of what a state such as Bihar or Orissa is consuming annually!

The impact from even moderate increases in yields from solar power plants is thus fairly obvious. What are the practical and effective ways and means to increase yields from solar power plants?

As India’s solar PV capacity scales, increasing the yield from the existing assets will become as critical as installing new capacity.

There are a few key challenges that result in lower yields from solar farms in India.

If the site for solar is chosen without proper scientific assessment, it could result in poor yields. In many cases, I have encountered prospects calling me and saying, “I have 100 acres in this village. I wish to put up a solar farm.” Well, that location might not yield the best. Regions that are exposed to high dust levels (say, near a highway) could also show lower yields.

Another mistake developers do is sub-optimal work during the design stage, which, along with cutting corners on quality of both solar panels and components, can have a significant negative effect on the output from the solar farm for 25 long years.

Poor maintenance of the solar farm is the third culprit that significantly reduces yield. Poor maintenance practices can lead to a 10-20% reduction in energy output. Several solar farms in Rajasthan reported significant downtimes due to a lack of routine maintenance, and many farms installed in the deserts of this state suffer from frequent dust accumulation, necessitating regular cleaning to maintain panel efficiency.

A related challenge to operations & maintenance is lack of real time monitoring. While many large solar farms developed by professionals today incorporate these technologies, they can do even better, especially with weather forecasting and incorporating such intelligence into their expected yields and for dispatch of more reliable power to the grid.

Technology solutions could help overcome the above challenges and mistakes.

O&M innovations – O&M innovations and improvisations to gain more from solar farms in India include efforts in predictive maintenance that use IoT and data analytics can enable predictive maintenance to identify potential failures before they occur, robotic cleaning solutions that can maintain optimal panel performance without the need for extensive manual labour, reducing operational costs and ensuring consistent energy capture, enhanced training programs that result in well-trained staff to reduce operational errors and enhance overall farm efficiency, advanced coating  that minimizes dust accumulation and maximizes light absorption, reducing the need for frequent cleaning.

Digital innovations – With the explosive growth of digital technologies in recent times, digital & IT innovations that can be used to gain significantly more from solar farms in India. Smart monitoring systems that provide real-time data on performance metrics can optimize energy production by tracking performance metrics and enabling improved operational decisions. Similarly, energy management software that integrates energy management systems to optimize grid interactions and manage energy storage effectively can ensure better management of energy flow and reduce wastage and improve profitability. AI and machine learning can be leveraged for data analysis and forecasting to enhance decision-making processes related to energy production. For instance, AI can predict performance dips and suggest corrective actions in real-time, improving yields.

Best of breed practices – Best of breed practices in solar farm management from worldwide can be adopted for India. Combining solar with energy storage and demand-side management  enhances flexibility and reliability, allowing better grid integration. Such integrated systems in Germany and Australia manage energy flow efficiently, ensuring that solar power is effectively stored and utilized, thus maximizing overall energy output. In the United States, integrating advanced large-scale battery storage with solar farms allows for the effective management of energy fluctuations, ensuring a steady power supply even during non-sunny periods.

New business models

As the solar power sector aspires to scale to the next few orbits, technology alone cannot drive such scaling. New economic and business models need to come into the mix as well.

OPEX model, community solar programs, lease model, pay-as-you-go model and deferred capex models are some new business models being used by the Indian solar power sector, most of these for the rooftop and distributed solar power segment.

The #HOperating Expenditure (OPEX) model#H allows consumers to install solar systems without any upfront costs. A third-party developer, often a Renewable Energy Service Company (RESCO), finances, instals, and maintains the solar system. Consumers enter into a long-term Power Purchase Agreement (PPA), paying only for the electricity generated. As of the end of 2022, the OPEX model accounted for approximately 22% of cumulative rooftop solar installations in India, equating to around 378 MW of installed capacity.

Particularly popular among commercial and industrial (C&I) customers as it mitigates financial risk and allows companies to focus on core business activities. Companies such as CleanMax Solar have successfully implemented OPEX-based projects for businesses, including major corporates like Hindustan Unilever, enabling them to adopt solar energy without significant capital expenditure.

As of the end of 2022, estimates suggest that the OPEX model accounted for around 30% of cumulative rooftop solar capacity in India. The OPEX model is particularly favoured by C&I customers. It allows businesses to adopt solar energy without significant capital expenditure, reducing financial risk and enabling them to focus on their core operations.

The OPEX model’s ability to secure long-term Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) makes it attractive for institutional investors. These stable revenue streams enhance the financial viability of solar projects.

The #HLease Model#H is another popular business model. In this, consumers pay a monthly fee to use the solar system, which remains the property of the solar provider. Ownership typically transfers to the consumer at the end of the lease period. This reduces the financial burden on consumers and is gaining popularity in residential and small business segments. Many companies offering the OPEX model also offer leasing options for solar rooftop installations.

#HCommunity Solar Programs#H, though not very prominent in India, allow multiple consumers to invest in a shared solar facility, often located off-site, enabling individuals and businesses without suitable rooftops to benefit from solar energy. Still in its nascent stage in India.

The #HPay-As-You-Go#H model#H enables customers, especially in rural and underserved areas, to pay for solar power in instalments, often via mobile payment platforms. Some companies offer affordable solar lighting solutions under this model in India – and more so in underdeveloped African countries – positively impacting energy access in rural communities.

And then there’s the #HDeferred CAPEX Model, an adaptation of the CAPEX approach, that allows customers to pay for solar installations in instalments rather than a lump sum. Some Financial institutions and Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have tailored products to support deferred CAPEX for SMEs.

Solar + storage – emerging trends

Solar power has been using batteries as a storage medium for quite some time. But with the scaling of solar power, the battery technologies that are needed to store gigawatt hours of solar power need to evolve as well. The current dominant technology in batteries is Li-ion batteries. Are these capable of providing the massive thrust needed for solar power storage? Will there be new battery chemistries needed?

Going beyond batteries, large solar power developers are also exploring #Hpumped hydro storage#H as a serious option. In this, the solar power is stored during times of excess supply to pump water up a reservoir. The stored water is then let down at suitable times to run a turbine and generate power. If you feel you had seen this technology somewhere, you are now wrong – this is precisely what a dam-based hydropower plant does! What’s new is the use of solar power to pump up the water. Pumped hydro storage has significant potential for India’s solar power sector to provide 24×7 renewable power.

A few other large-scale and long duration storage technologies such as #Hcompressed air storage#H are being explored but these are far down the timeline at their current stages of evolution, than are batteries and pumped hydro storage systems.

Solar & EVs

Electric vehicles are cool and green. Are they really?

What happens if an electric vehicle is charged by power generated by a coal power plant? How can it be then considered a green source of transportation?

Such concerns are leading to the increasing use of solar power for charging electric vehicle batteries. The solar power could be generated right on top of an EV charging station or procured from a remotely located solar power plant.

Charging EV batteries with solar power also leads to an exciting opportunity where the #HEVs can be considered as a storage medium#H for solar power. Consider this scenario: Your rooftop solar power plant is generating more electricity than you can use during the day, and your electric car is standing right below. Why not pump the extra electricity into the EV battery and take it back from it at night?

Sounds like a deal?

Green hydrogen

What is in a colour? If the colour were about hydrogen, a lot. The hydrogen you get from natural gas or from electrolysis of water from solar power are absolutely the same chemically and functionally, but very different economically and politically.

Green hydrogen is big news these days. But behind the expected green hydrogen future lies  solar power; the hydrogen generated is considered green only because the electricity consumed for generating it is green electricity – typically from solar and wind power plants.

Green hydrogen enables solar power, which is only electricity, to be transformed into a whole range of “green things” – from fertilizers, fuels, chemicals, plastics and more. Thus, the combination of renewable power (solar or wind, mostly) and green hydrogen has given rise to the concept of Power 2 X, where X denotes the range of products from fuels to chemicals that power can be converted into, through the use of green hydrogen as the carrier of this green power.

Solar & green hydrogen

Green hydrogen is mostly produced through the electrolysis of water. Solar power provides a clean and abundant source of electricity necessary for the electrolysis process. This integration ensures that hydrogen production does not contribute to carbon emissions.

Making green hydrogen leverages and complements solar power in an interesting way. The variability of solar energy, which can fluctuate based on sunlight availability, is effectively managed by pairing it with green hydrogen production. Excess solar energy generated during peak sunlight hours can be utilized to produce hydrogen, which can be stored and used when solar generation is low.

Solar power’s decreasing costs and scalability make it an economically viable option for powering electrolyzers and producing green hydrogen.

Power 2 X

Green hydrogen also enables #Hsolar power to be transformed into diverse products#H – thus the term Power 2 X. Electricity is electrons, but products are atoms and molecules and compounds. Use of electrolysis using solar power to generate hydrogen is a pathway to transform the electrons into all sorts of things.

The Power 2 X sector has seen some really hectic activity in the last few years, though the actual deliverables on the ground will perhaps take some time to be realized. Projects are afoot globally to use green hydrogen as the starting point for industrial & process raw materials, liquid fuels, chemicals, plastics and more.

The Power 2 X movement is still in its nascency in India but as the price of green hydrogen comes down from its perch of about $5/Kg to the $1.5-2/Kg in the next few years, expect the Indian Power 2 X (especially Solar Power 2 X) ecosystem to heat up as well.

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Figure: Solar Power to generate GH2 and its applications

Solar + Hydrogen – made for each other

While hydrogen is a wonderful energy carrier, with one of the highest mass energy densities, it is also the lightest atom, which requires a large volume under normal conditions for a given mass. This very low density of hydrogen, along with the fact it is highly inflammable, makes it a challenging product for transportation, especially over long distances. While pipeline transport might make it easier to transport hydrogen in the long run, there is another model that can make hydrogen transport easy – do not transport it at all.

Producing hydrogen where it is needed is one way to use the strengths of hydrogen while avoiding the challenges from its low density. That implies distributed production.

Solar is a distributed energy source too. This distributed nature makes it easy for green hydrogen users – especially small and moderate scale users – to produce green hydrogen at the point of use by installing solar panels and setting electrolyzers to produce green hydrogen.

Solar power sector plans for green hydrogen

What are the plans being made by the Indian solar power sector to benefit from the incoming green hydrogen growth?

Introduced by the Indian government in 2021, the #HNational Green Hydrogen Mission#H aims to promote the production and application of green hydrogen, recognizing its synergy with renewable energy sources like solar power.

Multiple projects are in development to integrate solar farms with hydrogen production facilities. Partnerships between solar developers and hydrogen producers are being formed to optimize resource use and enhance production efficiency.

Joint ventures between government entities and private firms are being explored to establish pilot projects for large-scale solar-to-hydrogen systems.

Companies such as Reliance have announced plans for gigawatt-scale electrolyzer facilities supported by solar power, aiming to boost domestic hydrogen production.

States such as Tamil Nadu are also planning hybrid solar-wind projects to support large-scale hydrogen electrolysis, leveraging the complementary nature of solar and wind energy to enhance reliability.

There are also efforts to utilize green hydrogen to decarbonize hard-to-abate sectors like steel and ammonia production. Tata Steel is exploring the use of solar-generated hydrogen in steelmaking, with pilot projects aimed at transitioning from traditional carbon-intensive methods to hydrogen-based processes.

A solar future 

In 2025, #Hsolar will supply 7-8% of total electricity#H consumed in India. That is an impressive number given the large amounts of electricity the country needs and the short period of time in which solar has achieved this status.

But India’s transition to making solar power the largest source of electricity generation will take quite some time, and will depend on multiple factors, including advancements in storage technology, grid integration, and policy support.

It could take well into the 2040s for solar power or even beyond 2050 to actually overtake coal power plants in terms of generation. But, as the former Saudi Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmed Zaki Yamani famously said,  “The stone age did not come to an end because of the lack of stones”. Similarly, while coal could be dominant even well into the 2040s, the fact that its future is highly threatened by more sustainable alternatives alone should make the coal power sector prepare for Plan B!

Given the current trajectory, solar is growing faster in capacity terms than any other energy source in India. By 2030, as part of the target of 500 GW of renewable energy capacity, approximately 280-300 GW is expected to be from solar.

Peering through a crystal ball, what can we visualize on where solar power would be ten years from today? Twenty? By 2050?

• Will most of our cars be running on solar powered batteries?
• Will most industries have shifted to solar power for their electrical needs, getting RTC solar through the use of batteries and other large scale energy storage tech?
• Will heat also be electrified and thus solarized?
• What relationship will solar share with wind power?
• What types of storage will size up to storing very large amounts of solar power?
• Assuming batteries continue to be a dominant energy storage solution, what do we do with the humungous amounts of batteries needed?
• Will solar be powering aviation as well?
• Taking Power2X to its extremes, will we be using electricity from solar to make our foods? Or even more exotic still, will we be using sunlight in solar to make our food through CO2 captured and with microbes?
• How will solar power be utilized along with another disruptive phenomenon, synthetic biology?
• What can the big disruptor AI do for solar?
• Is there a possibility for solar CSP to see a resurgence and become a dominant force in power?
• Will completely new types of solar technologies raise potential efficiencies to much higher than 40%?

How many of the above could come true?